One of the arguments to stay in Iraq is to ensure political stability. The current Iraqi government is clearly not creating political stability. Typically we assume incompetence or overwhelming circumstances for the lack of political progress. But another reason should be considered.

As soon as a modicum of political progress has been achieved, window dressed as it may be, the US will have to pull out. Given public opinion in the US, politicians will have to start calling for a troop withdrawal with the slightest signs of improvement. However, prime minister Maliki will likely not survive that situation for more than five minutes.

So here is the question: Why would Maliki actually try to achieve anything that we might call political progress? Isn’t he better off maintaining chaos, weakening his enemies with the help of the Americans and see if another time will give more possibilities for him to achieve power without US intervention?

I think we see political chaos, because both the Iraqi government and the Bush administration don’t want political progress at this point. They calculate that the specter of chaos will deter real action from Congress. Let chaos reign.

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